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Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 11/10/09

With the next election day sitting 358 days away, there will be nights where the amount of polling news will be far exceeded by the amount of political news.

This is one of those nights.

So follow along for a couple of polling stories, and the mother of all bullet-noted political digests, as we put the wrapping paper on this Tuesday evening.

CT-Gov: Rell Vulnerable Had She Stuck Around, Says Q Poll
Republicans received a blow to their bid to hang onto the Connecticut statehouse yesterday, when incumbent Governor Jodi Rell announced she would not seek another term. A new poll out today from the team at Quinnipiac (which was conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, before Rell's announcement) shows that against Democratic Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, Rell would have been in a whale of a fight. Rell only had a six-point edge over Bysiewicz (46-40), who has a narrow lead over 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont in the Democratic Primary, according to the survey. Rell had a larger lead over both Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (52-33) and Lamont (53-33). In what is almost an annual event at this point, state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is "listening" to entreaties to get in, but seems predisposed to (once again) stay on the sidelines.

ME-Sen: Because It Is Worth Mentioning Again...
This was ground plowed early in the day (including here at Daily Kos with a top-notch analysis by our own Jed Lewison), but for those who missed it on the early shift: Maine's Republican Senator, Olympia Snowe, would be exceedingly likely to get Scozzafavaed should she seek re-election in 2012.

According to PPP, a generic Republican challenger would defeat the GOP incumbent 59-31 in a primary challenge. Snowe has a net negative favorability (40/46) with her voters in-state, which means that Snowe's amenable favorability ratings in Maine, ironically enough, are owed to the Democrats and Independents in her state, rather than those who share (for the time being) her party affiliation.

NATIONAL: AP-GfK--Obama Approval Steady, Public Growing Pessimistic
There is good news and bad news for President Obama in the latest national data put together by GfK on behalf of the Associated Press. The new AP/GfK poll has holding steady at 54% job approval. While not stellar, it is steady when compared to October. There is bad news, as well: the percent of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track is now up to 56%, which is a five-point jump over last month. The president's numbers on his handling of Afghanistan and the economy also dropped over the past few weeks.

IN OTHER NEWS...

  • Democratic former state Senator Cal Cunningham has decided not to run for Senate against Richard Burr. In addition to citing his desire to be with his family, Cunningham said:

    As a candidate, I have to look supporters in the eye and show them how we win – and what we do when we get there. After a very careful look, I’ve concluded that this is the wrong race at the wrong time for me and my family.

    Rep. Bob Etheridge is rumored to be considering a challenge to Burr. -- Laura Clawson

  • Speaking of the North Carolina Senate race, there are a few more names dipping their toes in the water, though it looks like everyone is waiting to see what Congressman Bob Etheridge is going to do. The latest reports out of the Tar Heel State are that both Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy and former state Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker are still giving it some thought.
  • Who knew there was a formaldehyde lobby...much less that it was powerful enough to buy senators? Yet somehow, David Vitter, a recipient of large sums of money from formaldehyde producers, has placed a hold on the nomination of Paul Anastas to a job at the EPA. Why? Because Vitter really, really wants to get to the bottom of formaldehyde's effects on people -- by studying it for another two years before the EPA follows the lead of the International Agency for Research on Cancer and upgrades it from a "probable human carcinogen" to a "known human carcinogen." Apparently if Anastas is confirmed, the EPA might act with undue haste in preventing people from getting cancer. Recall that this is not the first time Vitter has prevented a nomination from coming to a vote when delay might cost lives. -- Laura Clawson
  • Wow...that didn't take long. Only one day after right-wing wunderkind Josh Penry backed out of a planned bid to run for Governor of Colorado, the rumors are flying that he didn't jump, he was pushed. The scuttlebutt is that megabucks Colorado native Phil Anschutz personally made it clear to Penry that the money was going to be entirely on the other side (former western CO Congressman Scott McInnis). Will the teabagger crowd, who seemed to much prefer Penry to McInnis, be cool with the monied interests in the Colorado GOP eighty-sixing the candidacy of "their guy"?
  • Here's another hot rumor, that has not been quenched as of yet: with the retirement of Jodi Rell as the Governor of Connecticut, might Rob Simmons leap from the Senate race to a gubernatorial bid? That might prove to be a safeguard against getting Scozzafavaed on the Senate side.
  • Hahahaha!! Apparently, there might be a pretty nice rift between Florida Governor Charlie Crist and the dean of Florida's Congressional delegation, Tampa Bay Congressman Bill Young. The latest evidence: Young was given an ample opportunity to declare his support for Crist in the forthcoming Senate primary this weekend, and refused to pull the trigger.
  • With Democrats still officially scrambling for a candidate in Wisconsin's open-seat gubernatorial race, the most recognizable name in the field seems ready to get off of the fence. Tom Barrett, the former Congressman and current Mayor of Milwaukee, will make his call, presumably by week's end. In a humorous blog post, former Madison Mayor Paul Soglin threatened that if no one got into the race for Governor on the Democratic side, then he would run. While not serious about the bid, he still threw down the gauntlet to other Democrats:

    Given the critical nature of the problem, if there is no viable Democratic gubernatorial candidate by Thanksgiving, I will announce my candidacy on December 1, 2009.

    That will teach them.

  • There are a ton of developments in House races today. So many, that one of my daily reads, the SSP Daily Digest at Swing State Project, needed a second edition today. Definitely worth a read.


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