A new Public Policy Polling report is pretty stark for Democrats and their prospects of hanging on to majorities next year.

Here are a couple key takeaways:

There is a price to pay with independents if a strong health care bill is passed. Democrats lead 37-30 with them in general on the generic ballot, but they say they'll vote 44-37 for the GOP if a bill with a public option makes it through. Clearly some independents are sitting on the fence waiting to see what happens with health care before they decide how to vote next year and Democrats could push them toward the Republican side by passing a bill without bipartisan support.

That said, the price to pay with those independents is not nearly as bad as the damage Democrats would do with their base by not passing a health care bill. Democrats get 86% with their own party on the generic ballot if a bill with a public option passes. They get 84% before health care is even mentioned. They get just 75% without a health care bill. They have to get something done in order to keep the party's rank and file voters in line for next year.

What's the big take away?

The political damage for Democrats of passing a public option is not as bad as the damage from doing nothing.

Those independents maybe wavering now (which is what they do, they're not called swing voters for nothing) but a halfway decent reform bill, that actually accomplishes something for some group in the country--primarily the working uninsured--is very likely to bring them around in 2010. What they like most is to rail about do-nothings in Washington. If the Dems in Washington do something, and do something fairly decent, they won't lose substantial numbers of independents.

The PPP numbers show precisely what progressive activists have been saying now for months: if they try to pass off a crappy, totally watered down bill as reform, the base won't show up. Democratic lack of enthusiasm will show up in the committee coffers at the DSCC, DCCC, and DNC, in phonebanks and canvasses and rallies. And in the voting booth.

This should embolden Congressional progressives to stand firm in demanding a solid public option. The numbers have always, and continue, to be on the Dems' side if they just do this right.