Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 48-43. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with R2K from today (yesterday) and the others from yesterday (day prior).
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 48 (49) 43 (43) 3 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (48) 43 (42) 3.2 RV
Rasmussen: 49 (49) 46 (47) 2 LV
Gallup: 46 (47) 46 (44) 2 RV
Here are most of the most recent national polls (I am not interested in Zogby internet).
CBS/NY Times 47 42 3 LV
Democracy Corps (D) 47 44 3 LV
WNBC/Marist 49 44 3 LV
Times/Bloomberg 49 45 3 LV
The last three days of polling in the R2K poll are +4 Tu, +7 We and +5 Th. The major network polls (ABC (+9), NBC (+2), CBS (+5), CNN (+4), Fox (+6), the ones that drive media narrative, have this a +5 Obama average lead, exactly where the R2K tracker is.
From LA Times/Bloomberg:
Only about 10% of registered voters in the poll were undecided or wavering. An additional 15% said they might change their minds. Many were looking to the upcoming presidential debates as an opportunity for the candidates to sway them.
Many of the polls suggest the vast majority of the electorate is locked in, but the race is close enough so that those 10% undecided and 15% "can change" voters still matter. However, leaners tend to vote their lean.
From CBS/NY Times:
The poll offers some clues about what Americans want in the foreign policy and national security arena, and those views appear often in keeping with those of Mr. Obama. The findings suggest that he does not necessarily face a public that is at odds with his positions, but rather one that has yet to be fully convinced of his ability.
It's way too early to read polls on the current financial bailout debacle, but there's no obvious effect picked up yet. Here's a second part to the snap poll that SUSA ran. This is a fwiw poll:
3 of 4 Americans say presidential campaigning should continue. Just 16% say presidential campaigning should be suspended, largely unchanged from Wednesday.
60% of Americans have No Confidence in President Bush’s ability to lead during these economic times.
50% have No Confidence in John McCain’s ability to lead during these economic times.
43% have No Confidence in Barack Obama’s ability to lead during these economic times.
Half of Americans are now concerned that the bank whey they have their money will fail.
What is clear is that McCain trails, and if McCain cannot shift perceptions, he will lose. And what seems to be developing (and only beginning to be covered in the media) is how divided the Republican party is, how much conservative Congressional Republicans dislike McCain, how weak Bush is, and how bizarre it is for them to push deregulation as the answer in this environment (see below.) Someone will have to make the case how that helps McCain, because it sure isn't obvious to me, especially if the markets do poorly and McCain and the GOP are blamed. As yet, polling has little to say about that.
Marc Ambinder on the state of play:
The fact is that Boehner doesn't have 100 votes from his conference -- 100 votes that Nancy Pelosi really wants. And that's not McCain's fault.
But Boehner and the White House -- and McCain -- if they want to get something passed -- do have the responsibility to persuade these Republicans to support the bailout .
After all, if not to get these recalcitrant Republicans on board, why did McCain go to Washington in the first place?
To either piss off moderates or piss off conservatives, I guess. And the need to do so was set up by... John McCain.
McCain could feel that same pressure, and having called for the meeting, he will have to show if can deliver the votes of House Republicans, many of whom have been leery of him in the past. Mindful of this, the senator’s campaign issued a brief stament an hour after the breakup of the meeting.
"We're optimistic that Sen. McCain will bring House Republicans on board without driving other parties away, resulting in a successful deal for the American taxpayer."
As for the bailout, from Diageo/Hotline:
In general, more voters say that they would prefer that the government have more "involvement in and oversight" over the financial markets. During the week, there has been a steady climb, with almost half of voters (47%) saying that they would like the government to have "more involvement and oversight in financial markets."
That said, when it comes to the current crisis in the financial market, voters are split as to whether the government should provide emergency funds to bail out banks and financial firms. In today's Poll, 43% say that the government "should provide emergency funds to bank and financial firms to help keep them in business" while 41% say that the government "should not provide emergency funds to financial firms because it sends the wrong signal."
As for Obama vs McCain:
Who would do best job handling the economy?*
* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 900+ interviews concluded the previous day (based on at least 300 interviews conducted daily).
Virtually all the polls have an Obama lead on that question, but given yesterday's events, it is unclear where we are with that, as well.
So here's the worry:
The political impact of this episode has only just begun. If it fails, or looks like a bail-out for wealthy and feckless financiers, the compromise proposal being stitched together yesterday has the potential to cause lasting damage. The fall-out will continue long after the departure from office of the administration for whom, critics say, it provides a legacy: seeking power and money without accountability.
And here's the reality:
While there is no doubt a middle ground, at the moment Mr. McCain finds himself between conservatives that he needs to keep on his side for the election — a group that while long wary of him had rallied to his side after his choice of Ms. Palin as his running mate — or being identified with the failure to complete a plan.
Stay tuned; more to come.
